DACA / BORDER Immigration Framework - Updates

The 2022 immigration framework circulated by Senators Sinema and Tillis is making headlines across the political spectrum. The framework includes: 

• Border security funding of at least $25 billion and upwards of $40 billion
• A minimum staffing level at 20,500 Border Patrol agents
• 14% pay hike for border patrol agents 
• Hire an additional 600 officers annually to staff the ports of entry
• Pathway to citizenship for two million for Dreamers - undocumented immigrants who came to US before 2018 as minors, including DACA recipients - as long as they have been in the U.S. since 2018, were under 18 when they arrived and were no older than 38 in 2012
• Title 42 in place for a year, with metric components in place for an extension
• "Make investments" in USCIS officers and immigration judges and courts for faster case processing 
• Recapture of unused employment visas. 

The two positive developments have been that it is under attacked by extremes on both ends- those who see any type of amnesty as a non-starter, and those who want amnesty for all or no one.  The moderates and more centrists groups seem to support the bill. 

Vote math seems to be there. Between retiring Senators, Senator Tillis as well as anti-MAGA and DACA supporting GOP Senators such as Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, the elusive 10 GOP Senators needed to pass the bill in Senate is not far fetched. Even though some members of the most progressive wing of House Democrats might step back, but a supermajority approval of Senate is bound to garner decent support from House GOP representatives, at least more than enough to offset House Democrats who choose not to support the bill. 

Really there are two potential snags. Smaller snag is any last minute poison pill for either side that ends up derailing the whole vehicle. This may include insistence on bringing the bill as a standalone instead of an amendment to a must spending bill like Fiscal Year Financial Plan (Or omnibus/continuing resolution) and NDAA. Standalone track is requires debate time, deliberation, and committee clearance, akin to landing a jumbo jet on a private runway meant for bushplanes given that Congress is scheduled to adjourn in 7-8 days. 

And this segues into the bigger potential snag - time. Framework has been finalized but not the actual text. Immigration reform of any scale or type is not going to have the support of even moderate GOP senators if they don't get reasonable heads up and time to read the bill. Unless text is finalized in the next couple of days and circulated, the bill is heading for a cliff. 

Hopefully, it is understood by both sides that the stakes have never been higher. Political math in the Senate to get enough GOP Senators is solid due to newly reelected as well as retiring anti-MAGA senators, who face little to no political fallout for supporting "amnesty". The next Congress, divided among extremist GOP House and Democratic Senate, will be a graveyard for any immigration bill. 

It's really now or never.