2019 State of the Union (SOTU) is going to be an interesting event for many reasons including the theatrics that will play out between Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump - the two arch nemesis in the border wall debate.
I am not overly enthusiastic from the news snippets claiming that this SOTU will have unity and bipartisanship as its central theme. The President had made such claims days before his first SOTU and then entrapped us with an anti-immigration speech orchestrated by Stephen Miller - his hard-right policy advisor and, unfortunately, one of his most trusted confidants in the White House.
Even though in his previous speech he had ostensibly offered a 12-year pathway to citizenship to so-called Dreamers (undocumented individuals who came to US as minors), his offer was coupled with major cuts to legal immigration as well as funding for his promised border wall. Not only were objective points of this policy hard to swallow for most of the Democrats, his language - citing Dreamers repeatedly as "illegal aliens" and tonality that reminded not of a statesman but more of a King bestowing a general pardon to hardened criminals - didn't go well with folks on the other side of the aisle.
If reports are to be followed this time, it is disquieting that Stephen Miller has returned again with a major editorial role in his speech. Though reports also mention that Trump will encourage a wide immigration deal between the two parties (including fix for DACA, etc.) but given that Miller's specter still looms over the President's oval office, it is hard to imagine that his plan wouldn't include many unacceptable poison pills.
Unless the President comes forth as someone genuinely interested in a bipartisan deal, stating as lucidly as he is possibly capable of that he will provide a path towards citizenship for DACA individuals, provide some sort of relief to TPS recipients, in addition to positioning his rationale behind a border wall in a conciliatory tone, he isn't going to get very far on his own.
And the math of the political environment says he isn't going to get very far on his own (with brains of Stephen Miller). Most of the Republican base outside of Trump base has been disillusioned by Trump, primarily because he has done way more damage than repair. What he has achieved isn't extraordinary, but the cost he has paid and forced his party to co-sign on it is stupendously high. The longest shutdown plummeted his popularity. His anti-immigration rhetoric is getting old and irritating to centrist Republicans. His tax-cuts bill hasn't done much to win the favor from blue collar working class. His failure to repeal Obamacare despite all the parliamentary trickery Senate Majority Leader McConnell brandished to get the repeal passed.
And, he is now gaining irks from the farthest quarters of the right wing as well - likes of Ann Coulter. Lately, it had become quite apparent that a lot of the policy shifts the President made at the 11th hour were directly influenced by radio talk show hosts and columnists catering to the most right-wing fringe elements.
The President needs to understand two things. First - unwavering support from his MAGA (cap wearing) base and Democratic flawed opposition were only two factors among many that won him the election. Second - the unwavering support may still be there, however, the other side is preparing to get rid of its flaws. Therefore, next Presidential elections, contrary to popular belief, is not going to be between hard left and hard right, it is going to be a contest in the field of Centrists. And Trump needs to cater to the Centrist core if he wants to get re-elected.
I am not overly enthusiastic from the news snippets claiming that this SOTU will have unity and bipartisanship as its central theme. The President had made such claims days before his first SOTU and then entrapped us with an anti-immigration speech orchestrated by Stephen Miller - his hard-right policy advisor and, unfortunately, one of his most trusted confidants in the White House.
Even though in his previous speech he had ostensibly offered a 12-year pathway to citizenship to so-called Dreamers (undocumented individuals who came to US as minors), his offer was coupled with major cuts to legal immigration as well as funding for his promised border wall. Not only were objective points of this policy hard to swallow for most of the Democrats, his language - citing Dreamers repeatedly as "illegal aliens" and tonality that reminded not of a statesman but more of a King bestowing a general pardon to hardened criminals - didn't go well with folks on the other side of the aisle.
If reports are to be followed this time, it is disquieting that Stephen Miller has returned again with a major editorial role in his speech. Though reports also mention that Trump will encourage a wide immigration deal between the two parties (including fix for DACA, etc.) but given that Miller's specter still looms over the President's oval office, it is hard to imagine that his plan wouldn't include many unacceptable poison pills.
Unless the President comes forth as someone genuinely interested in a bipartisan deal, stating as lucidly as he is possibly capable of that he will provide a path towards citizenship for DACA individuals, provide some sort of relief to TPS recipients, in addition to positioning his rationale behind a border wall in a conciliatory tone, he isn't going to get very far on his own.
And the math of the political environment says he isn't going to get very far on his own (with brains of Stephen Miller). Most of the Republican base outside of Trump base has been disillusioned by Trump, primarily because he has done way more damage than repair. What he has achieved isn't extraordinary, but the cost he has paid and forced his party to co-sign on it is stupendously high. The longest shutdown plummeted his popularity. His anti-immigration rhetoric is getting old and irritating to centrist Republicans. His tax-cuts bill hasn't done much to win the favor from blue collar working class. His failure to repeal Obamacare despite all the parliamentary trickery Senate Majority Leader McConnell brandished to get the repeal passed.
And, he is now gaining irks from the farthest quarters of the right wing as well - likes of Ann Coulter. Lately, it had become quite apparent that a lot of the policy shifts the President made at the 11th hour were directly influenced by radio talk show hosts and columnists catering to the most right-wing fringe elements.
The President needs to understand two things. First - unwavering support from his MAGA (cap wearing) base and Democratic flawed opposition were only two factors among many that won him the election. Second - the unwavering support may still be there, however, the other side is preparing to get rid of its flaws. Therefore, next Presidential elections, contrary to popular belief, is not going to be between hard left and hard right, it is going to be a contest in the field of Centrists. And Trump needs to cater to the Centrist core if he wants to get re-elected.
