GOP Republicans in play for DACA in December 2022.

 

DACA-fix looking unrealistic #DACA #Dreamers

The beat isn't positive, that's for sure. Mainstream media for the most part are acknowledging that DACA fix is one of the agenda items for Democrats, but reporters consider it as a "wish list" and something that is "not going to happen" because there is no "coordinated support for it." Senator John Thune (Number 2 in GOP Senate) also confirmed that a "DACA fix" isn't "going anywhere." Given the inflammable nature of the subject and less than 3 weeks to deal with, it was never a walk in the park. 

But the grave reality that DACA-fix is all but dead starting January 2023 when GOP takes the House with rejuvenated clout of the extreme right wing, seemed sufficient enough in the beginning for the hope to carry on. The elusive 10 Senate Republicans who hold all the power TODAY (to break filibuster in the Senate to pass legislation) will lose it all next year. Whether they vote for DACA or not, Kevin McCarthy (assuming he is the Speaker) isn't losing his speakership by putting a DACA bill on the floor. Next year, immigration is DOA (dead on arrival). 

Republicans know this. 

Democrats know this.

DACA Dreamers know this.

All hope mustn't be lost yet. Senator Durbin, while on the Senate floor yesterday, reiterated the urgency of a narrow bill for Dreamers (something Democrats have hesitated thus far) and also confirmed that he "is encouraged" by the conversations that are taking place. Activists for DACA have housed themselves in DC this week to convene with Democrats and Republicans in the Senate to "read the room" on DACA. 

Democrats need to focus on drafting a bill that can garner support of 10 GOP members (including 4-5 of those who are retiring and have no political fallout for supporting "amnesty"). 

This and next week will give us an accurate picture of where things are and where they are headed. 

For the DACA recipients, let's hope for the best (but prepare for the worst). 

 

DACA Dreamers face a Do-or-Die December

It is critical and, unfortunately, superbly difficult for Democrats to pass anything during lame duck session of 2022 for DACA dreamers. 

It is critical because Republicans take over the House in January 2023 with slim majority giving their hawkish Freedom caucus a massive sway in next Congress. It is not unimaginable to think that the GOP (especially the extreme faction of the party) House - the Jim Jordan House - is not going to let any "amnesty" be voted on in the next Congress even if DACA dreamers lose the battle in the high court and in turn their jobs, livelihood and means to live in the country. They just don't have the incentive to do it.

Between the-very-close then and now is December 2022 - the prime month of the lame duck session. As I have mentioned in my previous post, if Democrats can't close the deal in December of 2022, DACA dreamers face a doomsday scenario in next Congress. Citizenship for them will not be secured at least until the following Congress in 2025 (and that's assuming Democrats take the hold of Congress - which is highly unlikely). 

Even when the stakes for 800,000 DACA recipients couldn't be higher, it is going to be tough. In fact, next to impossible. Lame duck precedence is against DACA. Contentious legislation is usually avoided during this period as it is considered a transitional phase to the new congress and our political leaders start packing their bags for the Christmas holidays. 

Lame duck session is blink of an eye. Give or take, ongoing lame duck is around 2 weeks (10 days) of working calendar. Usually, congressional leaders need longer to just settle in their offices. Meeting with GOP colleagues, striking a deal, having a complete draft for a bill - that is way too much for this short period. Doable, but highly unlikely. 

GOP Senators are not incentivized to do anything for DACA during lame duck, other than goodwill and morality. And that doesn't bode well for DACA dreamers. The reality is that GOP senators who end up supporting an amnesty bill during lame duck (or anytime after that) will face an exceptional backlash from the extreme base of their party in Senate and especially the House in next Congress. Already the far-right news outlets and commentators have started hurling rocks and setting towns on fire at the whiff of some GOP senators just engaging in preliminary talks on this subject during lame duck. The names of those Senators have been placed on the "wanted" list. It is an uphill journey. Most of the GOP senators are ostensibly blaming the situation at the border for preventing them from signing off on any amnesty bill (knowing that DACA has nothing to do with border), it is really the backlash part that they are terrified of. Lindsey Graham, past proponent of Dreamers, at least admits it.

The only sliver of a light at the end of the tunnel is from the 4 out of 5 GOP senators who are retiring and have shown compassion towards DACA dreamers. Senator Blunt from Missouri, who enjoys great deal of goodwill with his Senate colleagues according to @PabloReports, is quite forthright in supporting DACA citizenship during lame duck for as long as the bill is limited to DACA. Given these senators are retiring and are immune from backlash, they may be more willing to support such an inflammable bill. The remaining 6 GOP senators would have to be those whose ability for reelection does not depend on the far-right flank of the party. They will have to step up and take this one. Again, where's the incentive? 

Really the only incentive for GOP senators is compassion. They, of all people, know their House colleagues better than anyone. They know the Jim Jordan House is the graveyard for immigration "amnesty" bill. It is this knowledge that may sway some surprising names in favor of DACA bill in December of 2022. 

Democrats have a massive role to play here which is another big problem for DACA. Historically, Democrats have used the term Dreamer quite broadly (covering as many as 4 million individuals) and tried to piggy back on DACA for amnesty for millions more. They will have to drop that strategy. GOP Senators are smarter. Democrats' job is to stick to amnesty for DACA recipients, no more no less. Keep it simple, clean, crisp, clear. Especially because it's really the livelihood of DACA that is on the line. Remaining undocumented population, albeit living by no means ideally in the country, will still continue their status quo. Democrats should try to find a bill around that which works for their GOP Senators. 

If anything comes to fruition for DACA, it will be attached to one of the year-end must-spending bills as an amendment. Some extreme Democratic House colleagues may try to use immigration to hijack must-spending bills but that won't work with Republicans. Bullying the opposition is not going to be the answer. A sober compromise is going to be. 

All of the above has to play out in December 2022. You do the math.

After lame duck session, Dreamers (DACA) don't stand a chance for years.

 It is important for the Democrats to realize that lame duck session is their only chance for getting pathway to citizenship passed for DACA recipients. If John Boehner could disallow vote on the bipartisan immigration bill back in 2013 that was passed by a veto-proof majority in the Senate, it is fair to say that Kevin McCarthy will most certainly follow that path come 2023. In the past 10 years, few would say that immigration debate has become less inflammable. 

More importantly, the 10 republicans, who stand between DACA recipients and a pathway to citizenship must acknowledge this fact. Their House colleagues are bound to reject any bill with a pathway to citizenship in 118th Congress, regardless of border security provisions tagged to it. John Boehner didn't care back in 2013 about the fact that Senate had thrown all the money it could on border security to appease their House colleagues. The poison pill was the pathway to citizenship. And if Republicans tried jamming an immigration restrictive bill with border security provisions without granting citizenship to some already within the country, Biden will veto it. 

So… the 10 Republicans, fateful 10, must know that any meaningful immigration bill - that helps them address border issues - must happen now during the lame duck. Even though some may say that lame duck is no time for major legislation. On the contrary, the lame duck session is especially for difficult but right bills to pass with little political fallout.