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Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Ending Filibuster: a Distant Reality

 As we head into Georgia runoff, #Endthefilibuster has started trending. This is not to discount the probability that David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are still the favorites going into January 5th extremely consequential election. 

The election can lead to a 50-50 divided Senate if both Democrats claim victories. VP Kamala Harris will break the tie handing the majority control to Chuck Schumer (D-NY). 

Most progressives, and even some moderates (including Joe Biden), are in favor of ending filibuster cloture rule. Today, at the core of legislative gridlock is the rule that requires three-fifth of Senate's approval (60 votes) to close debate and move on to vote. There are great many articles on the web in favor of and against this rule. 

If Democrats want any chance of making true of their campaign promises, they have to get ride of the filibuster rule as it stands today.  Or, else, the increasingly obstreperous opposition (that can be said for both Democrats and Republicans, to be fair) will use cloture rule as a weapon to bury Democratic agenda. 

Immigration, most inflammable agenda, is one that has been slaughtered most frequently on the alter of filibuster.  Recent memory recalls Dream Act of 2010 which failed to become law by 5 votes (including defection of 6 democrats - five voting "No" and one "intentional" abstention). 

However, there is one reliably opposing voice to ending the filibuster. It's not from Republicans. It's from this side of the aisle - that of Joe Manchin III's (D-WV). If recent interviews are any indication, Joe Manchin III is a vehement "No" for any change to existing filibuster rule. 

Therefore, unless a compromise rule that, let's say, allows 55 votes (and not 60 votes) to end filibuster is on the table and acceptable to Manchin III, hope to end filibuster as it stands today is slim to none (assuming Georgia Senators turn blue, of course). 

P.S. one "intentional" abstention from Democratic side during Dream Act vote was that of -- yes, you guessed it correctly - Joe Manchin III's. 

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